COVID-19 modeling

I served as lead of the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) Modeling and Advanced Analytics Team during the COVID-19 response for the State of California. In this role, I worked to increase internal infectious disease modeling capacity at CDPH while also synthesizing and translating modeling evidence from external partners that impacts public health policy.

Some publications and resources that I have contributed to:

Government-Academia Collaboration

• Building an agile state-wide research infrastructure to address COVID-19 and emerging threats: insights from an equity-centered public health and academic collaboration in California.

• Fostering public health and academic partnerships during and beyond a public health emergency: lessons learned from COVID-19.

Modeling

• Assessing the accuracy of California county level COVID-19 hospitalization forecasts to inform public policy decision making

• Modeling the burden of long COVID in California with quality adjusted life-years (QALYS).

• Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Remain Essential to Reducing COVID-19 Burden Even in a Well-Vaccinated Society: A Modeling Study

Vaccination & Re-infection

• COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations by COVID-19 vaccination status and previous COVID-19 diagnosis—California and New York, May–November 2021

• Trends in Laboratory-Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 Reinfections and Associated Hospitalizations and Deaths Among Adults Aged≥ 18 Years-18 US Jurisdictions, September 2021-December 2022.

• Pediatric SARS-CoV-2 Incidence in California by Vaccination Status, December 2021-April 2023.

• COVID-19 Vaccination and Incidence of Pediatric SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Hospitalization.

• Predicting the Public Health Impact of Bivalent Vaccines and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Against Coronavirus Disease 2019.

• Application of a life table approach to assess duration of BNT162b2 vaccine-derived immunity by age using COVID-19 case surveillance data during the Omicron variant period.

• Risk factor targeting for vaccine prioritization during the COVID-19 pandemic

Wastewater

• Real-time county-aggregated wastewater-based estimates for SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction numbers.

• Correlation between wastewater and COVID-19 case incidence rates in major California sewersheds across three variant periods.

• Estimating Relative Abundance of 2 SARS-CoV-2 Variants through Wastewater Surveillance at 2 Large Metropolitan Sites, United States

Health Equity and Policy

• The integration of health equity into policy to reduce disparities: Lessons from California during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Association of COVID-19 incidence with age eligibility for elementary school in California.

• California’s COVID-19 Vaccine Equity Policy: Cases, Hospitalizations, And Deaths Averted In Affected Communities: Study examines California’s COVID-19 vaccine equity policy.